Guests in this section:
Wang Shouyang, Director of the Center for Prediction Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Dong Xiaojun, deputy director of the economics department of the Central Party School (National School of Administration)
Shi Qian, researcher and director at the Shanghai Institute for Science of Science,
1. It is the strategic choice of the United States to stand in the way when Chinese technology industry tend to jump from the low-end to the high-end.
Guangming Daily library: With the escalating economic and trade frictions between China and the United States, in the past year, the United States has taken turns to curb China's science and technology, and technology has become another arena. What kind of containment behavior did the United States take against Chinese technology? Why do you pay so much attention to this field?
Dong Xiaojun: The United States uses the policy tools of trade and investment to impose extreme pressure on China's high-tech industries, including the following:
Increase product tariffs. The 10 areas covered by the 25% tariff increase in the United States are the key areas for China's high-tech development, mostly high-tech, high value-added products.
Implement a comprehensive technical blockade. In 2018, the US Congress passed the Export Control Reform Act and issued a list of 14 types of cutting-edge technology blockades, with export controls on biotechnology, artificial intelligence, and machine learning. .
Implementing "long arm jurisdiction" for high-tech enterprises in China. The United States uses its special status in international politics to directly sanction China’s real economy with domestic law. Relevant materials show that up to May 17 this year, 261 Chinese companies were included in the US blacklist of export controls, accounting for 21.9% of the total number of US entities.
Promote the reform of the foreign investment review system. Launch the Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act, the focus is on 27 core high-tech industries, and the content of the bill is clearly targeted at China. In particular, in the name of national security, Chinese companies are strictly restricted from acquiring US high-tech enterprises.
Interrupt the exchange of talents. The US government has strengthened the control of Sino-US scientific and technological talent exchanges, such as strictly restricting Chinese scholars and students in the fields of science and biology to study and exchange in the United States.
United allies to curb the development of Chinese high-tech in the Western market.
From the above, the strategic intention of the current US government is to contain China's high-tech development speed.
Wang Shouyang: The first US National Security Strategy Report of the current US government has positioned China as a "US rival country" and restraint action a national strategy. In fact, the United States has imposed various restrictions on the export of high-tech products to China for a long time. In 2007, the United States restricted 20 high-tech products to China, including aircraft and aerospace engines, inertial navigation systems, lasers, optical fibers, depleted uranium, underwater cameras and propulsion systems, advanced composite materials, and high-tech communications materials. In 2015, It is forbidden to export technology related to supercomputers to China. In recent years, it has strengthened the scientific and technological blockade and containment of China, including investment restrictions, such as prohibiting Chinese companies from investing in semiconductors and 5G wireless communications in the United States; talent restrictions, targeting Chinese high-level talents constantly, dismissing Chinese scientists Restrict the exchange of Chinese scientists to the United States.
Shi Qian: In the past year, the United States has continuously increased its efforts to curb the development of China's high-tech industry, strongly promoted the “decoupling of Sino-US technology”, and even suppressed the law-abiding and globally competitive enterprises in the name of national security. Stigma of China's scientific and technological development achievements. These acts of direct use of political forces to interfere in scientific research cooperation and market competition are contrary to the principle of free trade and free competition that the United States has always advocated, and the international community has been stunned.
At present, some high-end industries in China have strong competitiveness in the world, and the development momentum is rapid. Under the support of scientific and technological strength, the Chinese economy is realizing the transformation of kinetic energy and accelerating its rise to the high end of the global value chain. While this is totally intolerable to the United States, which has long led the development of the global technology industry and enjoys the technology exploitation situation. It explains the strategic choice of the United States to stand in the way when Chinese technology industry tend to jump from the low-end to the high-end.
At present, the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation are in the ascendant. The traditional science and technology powers may have a lower advantage in the new science and technology paradigm, and emerging countries are expected to bridge the gap. For example, China is likely to be one step ahead in the 5G technology industry. At the time of the transformation of the old and new paradigms, it is a strategic choice to contain China's surpassing from US’s hegemonic standpoint.
2. Must have a long-term response to mental preparation, plan and respond actively from the national strategic level
Guangming Daily library: What measures has China taken to respond, and what other issues are worthy of attention in the face of the US pressure on China's high-tech industry,
Wang Shouyang: China vigorously encourages technological innovation and continuously increases investment in science and technology research and development. In response to the intensified technological blockade of the current US government, we have adopted a more low-key and pragmatic approach in terms of talent introduction and scientific and technological cooperation. On the international front, we still hope to conduct negotiations and consultations with the United States through equal dialogue. On the other hand, we continue to strengthen publicity. We seek moral support and let all countries in the world have a comprehensive understanding of the unreasonable intimidation and reversal of the US government. In addition, China is constantly strengthening exchanges and cooperation with other technological powers.
For the high-tech blockade and containment of the United States, China must have a long-term ideological readiness, plan and respond actively from the national strategic level, and design policies and measures in the short, medium and long term. The development chain of high technology is from basic research to applied research and development to industrialization. Today, we need to spend a lot of effort to overcome the technical problems in the development of high-tech industries, and we need to solve the basic scientific problems of China's science and technology industry development in the long run from 10 to 20 years later.
Dong Xiaojun: In the process of continuous economic and trade friction between China and the United States, we must convey to the multinational enterprises the concept of “China will remain open as always” and start from the details to create a better and better business environment. Retaining a multinational company also retains the industrial chain, which is very important to us.
In the face of US technology Restraint, we should increase scientific and technological innovation and change from "Made in China" to "Created in China." There are three issues that must be taken seriously: First, we must establish a technological innovation system that is “enterprise leaded + market oriented”. The government should build an innovative basic research platform. Enterprises need to be market-oriented, play a leading role, form an industrial chain, and cooperate with innovation. The second is to promote basic education and basic research to “strengthen and increase efficiency”.In terms of basic education, we must increase investment in education and optimize the input structure; in basic research, we should give full play to the advantages of colleges and universities, establish a linkage mechanism between research institutes, and establish interdisciplinary and inter-agency research teams with obvious advantages and complementary chains. The third is to cultivate and create talents for science and technology innovation. You can refer to the US "Baidu Act" to provide effective institutional incentives for the cooperation of the government, scientific research institutions, and industry through reasonable institutional arrangements, and accelerate the pace of industrialization of technological innovation results.
Shi Qian: In the field of science and technology, the best way to compete with the United States is continue Focus On Development. At present, China has established scientific and technological cooperation with 158 countries and regions, signed 114 inter-governmental science and technology cooperation agreements, and joined more than 200 intergovernmental international science and technology cooperation organizations. On this basis, we should strengthen the study of international cooperation rules, communicate the desire to abide by international rules in a global manner, fully respect the interests of all parties, and call on all countries to seek common development under the multilateral mechanism, rather than just for one's own private.
The development of science and technology must be taken seriously. Sufficient and comprehensive accumulation is essential in the development process. It’s also needed to focus on strategic research and judgment, adapt to the new changes in the international situation in the new era, continue to promote deepening reforms, shift from a tracking-oriented layout to a more focused innovation policy, and enhance the overall effectiveness of the national innovation system. We will give full play to the leading role of major national strategies such as the integration of the Yangtze River Delta, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Dawan District, and the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and encourage localities to actively explore the unique innovation-driven development paths.
3. Consistently adhered to the stragety of independent development, the influence of external containment is bound to be weakened.
Guangming Daily library: In fact, the US high-tech containment strategy has been in existence for a long time, and it has suppressed Japan and South Korea. Drawing on the experience of the two countries in dealing with the US high-tech containment, how should China turn "crisis" into "opportunity" and let "Made in China" better and faster change to "China's Intellectual Creation" and "China's Creation?
Wang Shouyang: In the high-tech field, Japan and South Korea have been under the containment and suppression of the United States. The lessons of Japan are worth learning from. First, Japan’s rapid development in the field of semiconductor chips was due to Japan’s Concentration Strategy on Core Industry and a clear national plan to catch up with US integrated circuits. Japan has integrated the relevant forces of industry, academia and research, and strengthened cooperation among enterprises, so it has surpassed the US's innovative model supported by venture capital in a short term.
Compared with Japan and South Korea, China has magnificent advantages over technology industry chain and domestic market scale and stronger resilience. On one hand, we can continuously improve the core competitiveness of science and technology by strengthening research and development; on the other hand, we should also pay attention to the industrialization of high-tech achievements with broad market prospects. Therefore, how to effectively reduce costs, improve efficiency, and expand the scale of industrialization is a high priority for the development of high-tech industries. In the future, how to make private enterprises play a greater role in the development of high-tech industries, and also need special attention.
Shi Qian: The United States indeed had an effect on the containment strategy of Japan and South Korea, but the volume and strategic depth of Japan, South Korea and China cannot be the same. We have consistently adhered to the road of independent development, and the role of external containment is bound to be limited.
First of all, we must be firm in judging the future. A new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial change are poised for development. New technologies such as 5G and AI are our strategic choices. We must firmly persist in the direction of the development of new technologies. Only by perseverance, we can keep developing under external suppression.
Secondly, we must adhere to the international technology competition and cooperation mode. Contemporary science and technology is not a one-man show of single-handedness, but a group war of multi-party cooperation. We should adhere to the attitude of open cooperation and seek a path of cooperation and win-win. The pattern of scientific and technological innovation cooperation between governments has been formed; we have established stable and innovative dialogue mechanisms with major countries in the world, and regularly carry out high-level, wide-area and multi-subject cooperation dialogues between countries; although we have been suppressed, we should continue to promote Technology companies go abroad.
In fact, we must persist in our own developing mechanisms instead of going astray with the rhythm of the United States. Situation will sure improve.
Dong Xiaojun: Historically, Japan and South Korea have explored some experiences worthy of China's reference to the US high-tech containment strategy.
First, it has set up a “export limit” and a “trade surplus shift” model. Japan and the United States signed the "Japan-US Textiles Agreement" in 1971, and signed the "Special Steel Import Quota Restriction Agreement" in 1976, all agreement with export caps. Japan has transferred its surplus capacity to a third country, and its products have been exported back to the United States to ease the trade surplus. In the 1990s, the battle between the United States and South Korea, South Korea reduced direct exports to the US memory, and gradually shifted the surplus capacity to China.
The second is to explore the "industry chain integration" model with the United States. Sino-US industrial chain is valuable from a tactical perspective. In order to avoid "long arm jurisdiction" of the United States, Chinese companies can learn from the response path of Japan and Germany. Japan is taking the road of “industry chain integration”. In the 1980s, Japanese automakers such as Honda moved their production bases to the United States under the pressure of the United States, and localized the purchase of US equipment and parts.
The third is to set clear target and implement "dislocation competition." After the signing of the "Semiconductor Agreement" between Japan and the United States, the two sides divided the sphere of influence, that is, Japan developed the memory and analog semiconductor industry that is manufacturing and processing, while the United States developed higher-tech digital semiconductors and core computer operating systems. Similarly, before and after 1986, South Korea did not compete directly with the United States in the semiconductor chip industry. Instead, it carried out market segmentation. The United States has developed more high-value-added processors and ASICs. South Korea is focusing on memory chips. In view of this, China can explore the mismatch between the US and the dominant industries in the high-tech industry. For example, in the field of 5G, China can play a comparative advantage and cooperate with the United States in the vertical division of labor in the 5G industry value chain.
The fourth is to explore the "interchange technology, joint research and development" model. This is the practice of South Korea. In 2014, Samsung and Nvidia disputed the patents on graphics processors, and negotiated and signed an agreement to reach a settlement. Both parties made concessions while stabilizing their core interests, and agreed to license some of their patents to each other and jointly develop the next-generation GPUs.
4. We have full support and confidence to meet challenges
Guangming Daily library: In the face of the US's containment of China's high-end manufacturing industry, where does China's stregnth and confidence come from? How to seek a breakthrough?
Dong Xiaojun: China's strength and self-confidence stem from the growing strength. First, the innovation-driven development strategy is actively promoted. According to the 2018 Global Innovation Index Report released by the World Intellectual Property Organization, China ranks 17th and officially enters the ranks of the world's technological innovation countries. High-tech manufacturing industry has a good momentum of development. At present, it accounts for more than 12% of industrial enterprises above designated size. It has achieved major breakthroughs in various fields such as manned space flight and high-speed railway. Artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, Big Data, Cloud computing, Blockchain and other new technologies. New products are constantly emerging, and a batch of technology has entered the first phalanx of the international market. Secondly, China is the only country in the world with a full industrial chain, covering 39 industrial categories, 191 medium-sized categories and 525 sub-categories of the United Nations industry classification, forming the world’s “unique” industry and complete industry system.
A breakthrough should be sought in the following aspects: First, a more effective open-up and deblocking. Create a better scientific research environment and attract more world-class scientists to develop in China. In the field of artificial intelligence, about 50% of the scientists are Chinese. When Chinese scientists are squeezed out in US, the road of returning to China should be opening up. The second is to turn risks into opportunities and seize the development of the constraining industry. In the future, while actively pursuing the supply of exogenous technology, China must base itself on endogenous technology research and development, seize the opportunity to develop core components and core software, accelerate independent controllable and domestic substitution, and fill market vacancies.
Wang Shouyang: China has a long history and profound culture. It has also had a very high level of science and technology in history, but the later development path is different from that in the West. In the high-tech field, we have had a glorious history of “two bombs and one star”. Even today, the spirit of "two bombs and one star" continues to inspire scientists and technicians who are struggling in the front line. China has a large army of high-quality scientific research, a complete industrial base and a good innovation ecology. In the high-tech industry, we also have a group of entrepreneurs with strong sense of responsibility and ambitious ambitions. They have the confidence and ability to bring China's high Technology companies are doing better. These are our sources of confidence.
The development of science and technology has its own laws. A number of technologies have developed for a long time, and they need change, flexibility, andevolution. This is precisely the opportunity for latecomers to catch up. There are many such opportunities in the current high-tech field. This is what China’s scientific and technological communities need to grasp in time.
Shi Qian: Although China is not a technological power and a manufacturing powerhouse, it is already a big country of science and technology and a big country of manufacturing. Although there are still many fields where it is deficient in, no one can curb our development as a whole. Since the founding of the People's Republic of China 70 years ago, we have formed a historical experience in dealing with external challenges in the development. The strong leadership of the Communist Party of China is our institutional advantage. We have full confidence and sufficient confidence to cope with the challenges of development.
China's science and technology system and education system are quite perfect, and a large number of STEM (scientific, technical, engineering, mathematical English acronym) talents have been trained, ranking the world's foremost in absolute numbers. China's market is large in scale, with sufficient flexibility and rich hierarchy, and capable of coping with changes in technology supply. At the same time, a large user base and its consumption habits also provide a rich scene for technological development.
This article was published on May 29, 2019, "Guangming Daily"