An unprecedented scientific and technological competition is underway world widely in which human wisdom will be brought towards infinity. As a result, we will promote major breakthroughs in science and technology. New scientific concepts and ideas will bring about new lifestyles and social and cultural trends. New technological inventions and applications will create new industries and new jobs. In the coming 30 years, it is very likely that three major technological and industrial changes will continue. Human society will be highly developed in the continuous technological leap, and its impact will be comparable to the agricultural revolution and the industrial revolution.
In the past 10 years of the financial crisis, science and technology continued to maintain rapid progress in various fields and directions in 2018, which made people believe that the world is in the process of new technological revolution and industrial transformation.
From 2008 to 2018: entanglement between concerns and explorations of the growth summit
The essence of the financial crisis is technological innovation. Since the industrial revolution, human society has formed an iterative development model of “technical breakthrough—industry change—financial expansion—economic growth”. Represented by the slowdown in Moore's Law, major advances in science and technology are lower than expected, which in turn raises concerns about the “growth summit”.
One is the limits of materials. Emerging industries are in urgent need of developing all kinds of metamaterials and new materials. Extreme applications (such as the extreme requirements for safety of autonomous driving), extreme environments (such as extreme cold, extreme heat, extreme pressure, etc.), and extreme processes (such as the continuous breaking through the limit of manufacturing precision) pose comprehensive challenges.
Second, the limit of energy power. High-quality development is in urgent need of green and low-priced energy. Globalization depends on new types of transportation that are faster, smarter and more efficient. This puts forward an urgent demand for the realization of lower or even close to zero marginal production and distribution cost of energy, ultra-high speed and integrated transportation technology of land and ground.
Third, the limit of cognitive intelligence. The development of material energy, industry and technological progress all depend on the extension of cognitive scope. It is urgent to speed up and deepen the cognitive exploration of "three lives" (life, biology and ecology) and "four depths" (deep space, deep sea, deep earth and deep material), and realize the interconnection of all things and ubiquitous intelligence as soon as possible.
Fourth, the limit of ecological carrying capacity. Ecological pressure reached new high with total global carbon emissions increased by 2.7% over the previous year. In the first estimate of the total carbon storage of 550 billion tons of all living things on the earth, human population accounting for less than 1%. The bottleneck of coordinated sustainable development of population, resources and environment needs to be broken through.
In the face of extreme challenges, major countries and regions have continued to increase their investment in scientific research, and actively fought for the most cutting-edge technologies, new technologies and black technologies, thus unveiling the largest scale and scale of scientific and technological innovation and political gaming in history.
Coordinates 2018: eight technological developments that are changing the rules
First, deep space exploration has achieved many "pioneers" in recent decades. The first and most accurate three-dimensional map of the Milky Way, containing 1.7 billion stars ("Gaia" satellite). Breaking the fastest speed record of the aircraft for more than 40 years (the sun detector "Parker"); first discovered on Mars (high salt) Degree) liquid water ("Mars Express"); "close range" to see the asteroids at the edge of the solar system ("New Horizons" observation asteroid "End of the Earth"); A few decades later man launched the heavy rocket again (falcon heavy); Radio signals from the first stars 180 million years after the big bang have been detected. In addition, insight successfully landed on Mars and began work, becoming the third probe in service. Man has sent a probe to mercury for the third time. The two probes will arrive at the two asteroids respectively, and return to earth in the future, laying the foundation for space mining.
Second, the important events of the deep understanding of material. The first time to realize the antihydrogen internal reference energy transition. It is a step closer to cognition and manipulation of anti-matter, and is of great value to the future development of energy and other industries. The pressure inside the proton, was measured for the first time, is 10 trillion trillion trillion times the pressure of the earth's atmosphere and 10 times the pressure of the core of the neutron star. The first precise location of the origin of "ghost particles" from space to earth has led to a deeper understanding of the physical world.
The third is deeply exploring "mystery" of life in life sciences. The first cell division study of embryos was found with disruptive meanings. and the paternal and maternal chromosomes were split to control the separation of chromosomes separately. The most complete picture of the brain (the high-definition three-dimensional brain map of Drosophila melanogaster) was drawn for the first time. Scientists from all over the world worked together to map the wheat genome using the “Chinese Spring” wheat varieties from Sichuan. The wheat genome is multifarious and complex, about 40 times that of rice. New photosynthesis mechanisms have been discovered in cyanobacteria, bringing new ideas for finding extraterrestrial life and improving crops. Using DNA testing technology, it was first discovered that the mixed-race of the Danishova (father) and the Neanderthal (mother) more than 50,000 years ago has a new understanding of human evolution.
Fourth, biotechnology continues to enhance its ability to promote health. Using genetic editing technology to transform skin cells into stem cells for the first time, providing new ways to treat a variety of diseases. The first use of activated retinal stem cells to restore mouse vision will provide a cure for retinal degenerative diseases. The use of stem cells to develop an embryonic-like structure without using sperm or eggs has taken another step toward making artificial embryos. Cancer patients remain cancer-free after 5 years of immune cell therapy, setting a new record. .
Fifth, the research and application of super-powerful computing has produced a major breakthrough. The United States regained the world's first supercomputer with "Summit", and its performance exceeded the "Shenwei•Taihu Light" by about 60%. Countries began to actively develop "E-level super-calculation." "Quantum switches" verify the uncertain causal order and may be useful for processing quantum information. Using three photons to create a new form of light matter, it is possible to apply to ultra-fast quantum computing. Google announced the world's first 72-bit quantum chip, and Intel introduced the 49-qubit superconducting test chip. Quantum computing may be entering the "ten-year competition" chasing "quantum hegemony."
Sixth, intelligent applications are driving the rapid development of next-generation information technology. The integrated circuit process began to advance to 7nm, and "Beyond Moore" is also actively exploring. Google released the artificial intelligence chip TPU3.0, and NVIDIA released a new generation of GPU architecture. At the beginning of 5G, the relevant standards were postponed, reflecting the complexity of the 5G standard dispute and the commercial road. Applications such as the Internet of Things, cloud computing, edge computing, and fog computing are expanding, and the speed and reliability of the cloud and the client are increasing. Confrontational neural networks are promoting artificial intelligence to be more independent, but may also become digital counterfeiting tools. For the first time, Microsoft's machine translation system reached the level of human professionalism in the Chinese-English translation of General News, achieving a milestone breakthrough.
Artificial intelligence is used for diagnostic film reading, cancer evolution, drug screening and so on. There are more and more unmanned scenes in life, and logistics, service and collaborative robots are developing rapidly. Boston dynamics' humanoid robot can easily "triple jump". The situation of network security is grim, and "zombie attack", "databsubmerged", "dataexposure" and "Cloudleaks" have all gone up.
Seventh, the study of matter and materials enriches the means by which people recognize and regulate the physical world. Since the standard defining the "kilogram" still lost 50 micrograms in 100 years, the kilogram will be redefined by the Planck constant. When two layers of graphene are twisted together at a "magic angle" of 1.1 degrees, it is possible to switch between an insulating state and a superconducting state by appropriate adjustment. The superconductivity of hydrazine hydride was achieved at a temperature of 23 ° C, creating a new record for high temperature superconductivity. For the first time, superconductivity was found in quasi-crystalline alloys... These can have a significant impact on both superconductivity and quantum information technology. The first laser beam acceleration in a curved space will help to simulate general relativity and to control nanoparticles in microchannels and curved environments. "Seamlessly sewing" two crystals at the atomic level will bring new ideas for the manufacture of flexible LEDs and ultra-thin two-dimensional circuits. The acceleration of low-cost, fast-metal 3D printing commercials will revolutionize manufacturing.
Eight is that energy power is accelerating brewing revolutionary changes. First time in the history, with ion engine aircraft successfully tested, the aircraft will likely be "redefined." "Hydrogenation for 3 minutes, battery life of 600 kilometers", it’s thought that 2018 can be called the Year One of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Although it is not yet able to reach the L5 level (completely autonomous driving), the infrastructure has not yet been intelligent, and the first death has occurred, both cutting-edge manufacturers and traditional car companies have accelerated the development and deployment of intelligent driving, and road testing is increasingly Hot, the world's first commercial auto-driving car service appeared. Flying vehicles have come into reality from ideal blueprint, and many governments have actively supported the development and testing of flying vehicles. The photoelectric conversion efficiency of crystalline silicon, perovskite and solar modules has reached a record, and wind and photovoltaic have continued to develop. The super battery pack doubles the battery life. The “mini” nuclear fission reactor successfully passed the test and could power the future deep space outpost. Energy blockchains and smart contracts are accelerating in applications such as distributed energy, traditional fossil energy, and carbon trading.
From 2019 to 2049: the world's unprecedented tech " super revolution."
A series of studies have shown that it is currently in the middle of the fifth long wave down and the sixth long wave since the industrial revolution. An unprecedented scientific and technological competition is underway in the world. Human wisdom will be brought to the extreme, and technological breakthroughs will be promoted. New scientific concepts and ideas will bring new lifestyles and social and cultural trends, new technological inventions and Applications will create new industries and new jobs. In the next 30 years, it is very likely that three major technological and industrial changes will continue. Human society will be highly developed in the continuous technological leap, and its impact will be comparable to the agricultural revolution and the industrial revolution.
The first is the revolution of intelligence and cognition. The first five long waves in turn solved the problems related to the energy (steam revolution, electrical revolution), matter (fossil and synthetic materials revolution) and information that humans depend on for survival. With the development of artificial intelligence, human cognitive ability will Greatly improved to accelerate the breakthrough and application of science and technology.
The second is the revolution of life and health. Gene editing, immunotherapy, regenerative medicine, core organ reconstruction, and human body enhancement make "life is not uncommon", and people's physical ability will be greatly enhanced, thus accelerating the creation and growth of new industries and new employment.
The third is the energy and power revolution. Wind, photovoltaic, nuclear fusion, high-performance batteries, future transportation and other breakthroughs, human beings will gain unprecedentedly strong energy power, human kinetic energy is greatly enhanced, thus accelerating the birth of new culture and new civilization.
By 2049, the global science and technology competition will come to an end, and the world science and technology super revolution will create a new era. Scientific and technological innovation will fundamentally change the state of the earth's ecology, human society and the human body. The living standards and quality of life of hundreds of millions of people will be greatly enhanced, and the community of human destiny will be consolidated and consolidated. Human beings will become an interstellar species, thus uncovering a new chapter in the history of human civilization, life evolution and even the evolution of the universe. There is no doubt that China will play a vital and most active role in it.
This article was published in the "Learning Times" on January 23, 2019, by Li Wan, deputy director and researcher of the Shanghai Institute of Science.